No, it’s not the end of the world. At least I don’t think it is. But here is what a Donald Trump presidency will look like for young families in North Carolina and across the country.
Whether you voted (and I hope you did) Republican, or Democrat or something entirely else yesterday, there is something that I hope we can all agree on – changes are coming.
So today I found myself doing something that I never thought I would do… Perusing the Donald Trump website to try to figure out what his presidency might mean for young families in America.
Let’s start with what we can reasonably expect to change in the near term – even before Trump takes the Oath of Office in January.
Expect Lots of Market Volatility in the Short Term
The global markets were thrown into turmoil by the news that Trump might actually win this thing. Why? Because we just really aren’t sure what kind of President he will be or how he will govern.
However, as history has shown us time and time again, it doesn’t make sense to pull all of your money out of your 401(k) just yet… The people who are willing to ride this out are likely to be rewarded when the markets bounce back.
That being said, I expect the markets to be volatile for the next several months, at least until we start to see who he decides to appoint to his cabinet and what his initial priorities in office may be.
Once he does take the oath of office, what changes can we reasonably expect?
For starters, there are the changes that will directly affect American families, and those that we won’t immediately notice, but which may be felt for many years to come. For now, I want to focus on the policies and changes that will immediately hit home with many Americans in the first few days of the Trump Presidency.
What About Health Insurance?
Trump has promised that he will repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act on the day he takes office. What this looks like is anyone’s guess. It is highly unlikely that Congress can or will put together anything remotely passing as a replacement by January 20th. I’m more worried that he simply repeals the Affordable Care Act, thereby eliminating health insurance for 22 million Americans.
However, this would take an act of Congress to accomplish. In other words, both the House and the Senate would have to vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Since many Republicans do not support Trump, and the Democrats hold enough seats in the Senate to filibuster a complete repeal, this could take some time to happen.
Trump does have several other options to gut the ACA, namely, he could choose not to enforce some of the provisions of the law. Alternatively, his administration could re-write the regulations that implement the law. And finally, there is a case pending in the Federal Courts, US House of Representatives vs. Burwell, that is currently on appeal. A Trump administration could decide not to appeal the lower court decision ruling in favor of the House of Representatives, thus effectively killing the ACA.
However, if any of these scenarios were to play out, they raise many questions…
What would this mean for people who are currently on an ACA plan? I’m really not sure.
Will they immediately be dropped from their plans?
Will the insurance companies be compelled to honor their contracts until next year?
Will young adults (under 26) be immediately dropped from their parents insurance?
Trump has proposed using Health Savings Accounts to allow individuals to pay the premiums for their health insurance, as well nationalizing the health care plans which he says will lead to more competition and lower rates.
Bottom line – it is entirely too soon to say exactly what all this will look like.
What a Donald Trump presidency will look like for Estate Taxes?
Trump has vowed to repeal the “death tax” aka the Estate Tax. Currently, there is an estate tax exemption of $5.45 million, which was slated to increase in 2017. This means that most people weren’t even affected by the estate tax anyway – although it is always helpful to do some estate planning to make sure it wouldn’t affect you.
This is something that again, would take an act of Congress to accomplish, so I don’t anticipate it will happen anytime soon.
A lot will depend on how willing this Congress will be to support a highly unpopular President who looks to lose the popular vote, even though he won the electoral vote. The next two-years, until the mid-term elections, will be nothing if not crazy.
I expect to see lots of changes for young families in the State of North Carolina and around the country.
But just what lies ahead… is anyone’s guess.